Analysis and Predictions at 40 Games: American League

We're a quarter of the way through the season, early season call-ups have been made and it is time to take a look at the division races, and make some highly (non)scientific predictions for season 20.  I will take a look at the AL first, and hopefully the NL later this weekend.  We lead off with the AL North.

The North is one division where the standings look to be lining up nicely with the talent.
Phil 26-14
KC 22-18
Mon 21-19
Mil 20-20

The Erffdoggs are clearly the best team in the division and should win it handily.  They have everything: offense, defense and pitching plus superstars like Woods and Yamamoto.  I may have undersold my young Jayhawks before the season began, as they are rounding into shape nicely.  The defense and pitching are a little better than expected, and the offense has room for improvement.  Second place should be a good fight between KC and Montreal.  The Exporters are all about the booming of the bats, with 6 players already in double digits in homers.  The pitchers have a lot of talent, but have yet to turn that into production.  Milwaukee is right with Montreal for power, but maybe a step behind in pitching.  This team is so close to the two I have listed above it, that I might as well call it a 3 team race for second.  The thing that most stands out about this division is how scary good it should be within the next 2 seasons, as the bottom three team are all very young, and Philadelphia will certainly not be old.


The AL East is a division that I see changing leaders soon.  The standings at 40:
Huntington 24-16
Syracuse     22-18
Trenton       17-23
Durham       11-29

Huntington could be referred to as Ferguson, Vizcaino and some other guys.  Past those two stars, no one jumps out at you as great players, and a lot of the lineup would more aptly be described as journeymen.  Credit a great owner in dcinto for whipping these guys to outperform expectations. Ultimately though, talent wins ballgames, and Huntington should find themselves soon looking up at Syracuse in the standings.  The Shockers have started slow, but this is a very good team and should pull away from the pack as the season progresses.  You want to talk talent?  How about the reigning Cy Young (Lew Ellis) AND MVP (Christy King).  This team is stacked.  Trenton has some nice players such as Yamamoto and Martin, but they just don't have the horses to compete with Syracuse, but could compete for second.  Durham is hurting.  It's no surprise that their pitchers are getting roughed up in that park, but their hitters are not faring much better.  The fans are already looking forward to college basketball season.


The AL South may be the toughest division to handicap.
Tampa Bay  25-15
Florida         21-19
Louisville    18-22
Nashville     17-23

Tampa Bay is right where I would expect them to be, but Nashville is an early surprise who should be nearer the top of the standings.  The Bull Sharks are a team with several very talented hitters, but are being carried by a somewhat non-descript group of pitchers.  I look for that to change, but not the winning ways....this is a good, solid team.  On paper, Nashville looks to be right with them, if not a little better in pitching.  I have to think rbjb will get things going in the right direction sooner rather than later.  Florida is a team that has worked hard to become respectable the last couple of years, and I forecast more of the same.  A good team just not a great team that will finish close behind the division leaders, but not all that far ahead of the last place team.  After several good seasons,the Louisville squad is starting to really age.  I think they could easily rebound for one last winning season, but last place looks more likely and after this a massive rebuild is inevitable. 


The AL West is almost completely upside down compared to the talent that I see.
Cheyenne  23-17
San Diego 19-21
Las Vegas 18-22
Honolulu   16-24

Honolulu and Vegas are two of my top four teams in the AL.  Ultimately I see the Hurricanes winning this division, with the Desperados not too many games behind.  While overall talent between the two is similar, the thng that puts Honolulu on top is star power.  Especially on the pitching staff.  Vegas has a nice lineup top to bottom, but not quite as many horses on the pitching staff.  Despite the ageless Jimmie Segui, San Diego will not be able to compete with the big boys, but should once again have a nice season and finish a competitive third.  The Feather Heads nice start shows that they are certainly not a bad team, but in this division, not bad equals last place.


So, to sum up, I see Philadelphia, Syracuse, Tampa Bay and Honolulu winning their divisions.  Vegas takes the first Wild Card, but that second one will be a very close battle with Kansas City, Montreal, Milwaukee and Nashville all serious contenders, and the Bootleggers ultimately winning it.  Honolulu will win a hard-fought series with the Erffdoggs to take the pennant.