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Wednesday, December 4, 2013

NL South

Last year, this division produced the tightest three team race in Hobbs.  Can they do it again?  Why not?  You can literally flip a coin to decide between San Juan and Charlotte, and St. Louis could surprise.  Look for a wildcard team from the South.

I'll start with Charlotte even though they finished a game back last year.  Both teams are offense heavy at the expense of pitching, but blazr is injecting a lot of youth into his rotation.  The ageless Ken Sanders babysits the rotation, and should be very good as always.  Third year hurlers Rubby Franco and Lewis Carlson and rookies Rob Morton and Luke Savage are the other starters.  Franco and Morton are quality pitchers, but the other two are question marks.  Look for one (most likely Carlson) to be replaced soon by Al Servet, currently honing his skills in AAA.  The pen features another rookie, Yamil Duran, who won the closers job in ST over incumbent Fausto Fernandez.  Along with Bud Waner, they form the nucleus of the pen which drops off quality-wise after that.  Aramis Romo may well end up in the rotation by mid season.  The bats are what wins the games for these guys though.  Led by superstar Hugh Figueroa at 3rd and Vic Cortes at SS, both of whom are great with the bat and the glove, they also feature Farmer Ferguson, Julio Piedra, Nate Gagnon and Alejandro Fernandez.  CF Billy Flanagan has a glove of gold (actually, 5 of them), but his bat is just average.

San Juan's starting staff is led by Ugueth Rodriguez, one of the best in the league, closely followed by Carter Robinson and FA signee Bo Trujillo.  There is a decided dropoff to the #4 starter, Louie Daniels and a lot of uncertinty over who ends up as the fifth starter.  Rule 5 pitcher Gorkys Rondon has everything but control and Elmer Craig in AAA has a little less pure stuff, but slightly better control.  Brian Chang is the closer.  Good pitcher, but may be better off as a setup man.  Matty Ramirez is a quality setup man, but the rest of the pen seems as likely to bring gas to the fire as water.  If this was still season 21, I would be telling you about the balanced attack, led by names like Herndon, Jacquez and Weaver, but they are long gone, and this is now a lineup in flux.  Solid hitters Martin Daily at 3B, Andres Machado at C and Nigel Guerrero at 2B are still around.  LF Cristobal Baez is a fine leadoff hitter.  Terry Taylor is a great hitter, but hurt by not being able to DH.  Kyle Knight is a fine defensive SS other than the occasional mental lapse that that will cause him to make a few more errors than you would like, but his bat is decidedly bottom of the order.  Add in some platoon possibilities and a strong bench, and bobbyj just might coax as many runs out of the team as he did last year.

Patrickkm returned this year to take over the former Houston franchise and move it to St. Louis.  Like the previous two teams, this is an offensive minded bunch, and thay ae mostly in thir primes.  The rotation took a hit when Alex Harrelson took the big bucks and fled to Cheyenne, but they still return some quality arms.  Despite some mediocre pitches Eliezer Rodriguez becomes the de facto ace.  he is followed by Rod Peterson, Butch Smith and Max Hill, all good pitchers, and Antonio Fox who was a steal in FA.  Excellent closer Robinzon Andino is well supported by a trio of good setup men in Carr, Byrne and LaRocca.  By the ratings, SS Cy Murphy appears to be he superstar of this team.  In reality,  he doesn't field well enough to play at short (54 errors last year) or hit righties well enough to play at third.  He does, however, run very well, and show surprising power.  His partner up the middle Mike Coleman apparently sold his soul for a big bat last year, hitting a shocking  .307/.373/.923 which is probably a good 100 points higher in OPS than I would expect going forward.  1B Ron Casey and 3B Gene Stearns are legitimate hitters, as is LF Harry Gonzalez.  Finishing out the OF are Melky Piniero, a great fielder with a pretty good bat in center, and Orber Colome, who has looked like a great leadoff hitter in AAA, but doesn't project well despite a hot start.  Howie Brownson was a good catcher, but will miss most of the season with injury.

The Little Rock Coopers look like they plan to compete this year after a disasterous season 21.  After trying out several pitchers as SPs last year, they look to have settled on a rotation of Vicente Prieto, Scott Atchley, J.R. Blackley, David Jimenez and Carlos Volquez.  The first three are quality pitchers, with Prieto being the staff ace, the last two are replacement level.  The pen is basically a lot of interchangeable parts; none really bad, but none that are better than good.  The offense is what holds the Coopers down.  Compared to the other teams in the division, they just don't hve enough of it.  Donnie Saturria, Ken Ramsey, Armando Montanez, Willie Jepsen and Carlos Johnson are all solid hitters, but none are superstars, and Amazins needs more support around them.  Rookie Phillip Lawson may be part of the answer in RF.  J. B. Torres at SS is certainly no slugger, but he is a nice player.  Great fielder, with a very good strikeout/walk ratio which allows him to hit for a good average despite no power, little speed and mediocre splits.  All in all, this is not a bad team, but will finish a distant fourth in the division.



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